Sunday, July 3, 2011

The Week Ahead for the TSX

The week going forward will be an interesting one. I'm eager to see how the Canadian markets react to the sharp rally seen in the US on Friday after being closed for Canada Day.

Most likely, the TSX will gap up to match Friday's gains in the US. The question is where will it hit resistance.

You may recall that the SPX closed Thursday slightly above several resistance levels. The TSX60, as of Thursday, has not yet hit it's upper band of resistance on the daily chart. This includes the 200MA at 845.89, the 50MA at 851.53, the 61.8% fib at 854.26 and the blue trend-line at ~860.

Getting to these levels will take a good push up to be sure, but the fact that there is clear resistance ahead possibly shows a more definitive top than on the US S&P. And while it's possible we eventually break above these levels, it 's very unlikely that it happens before trading resumes in the US on Tuesday.

In any case, Monday's trading should be relatively uneventful. Once the initial gap up has occurred, I expect that the market will trade sideways or slightly up for the rest of the day. I'll be sure to post my initial reactions to the open on Twitter and post a summary here at the end of the day.

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