Tuesday, July 19, 2011

"Surprise" rally crushes bears

Today the markets rallied sharply, catching quite a few traders off-guard. But for anyone who reads this blog or follows me on twitter, it shouldn't have come as a surprise.

Yesterday and late last week I called for a bounce based on technical support and market psychology. Today's trading shows me that I couldn't have been more correct.

Nothing but upside since yesterday afternoon on SPY 10 min

The SPY opened the session up at 131.34 and then pushed further as high as 132.89. As you can see, the 61.8% fibbonacci level from yesterday held beautifully and today we saw more follow-through to the upside. The fact that so many traders are/were bearish I'm sure helped to propel prices as they got squeezed out of their positions.

Do not be distracted by all the talk of good earnings, etc. This is still a weak market with lots of underlying problems and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. This is simply a relief bounce based on good technical support and a contrarian move to punish traders who over-shorted the market. Rest assured that prices will eventually fall back down just as quickly as we saw them rise today, but until that time we will enjoy the ride up.

I'll continue to look for more follow-through upside into this week. Any long positions should do well as this rally appears to be broad-based.

Huge bounce off of 61.8 fib level with follow-through today

I'll keep this update brief as there is little to discuss. Assuming we continue up tomorrow, look to start taking profits first at the 1340 level and then at 1355 on the SPX.

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