Monday, July 4, 2011

Weak showing for TSX60

The TSX60 Capped Index ended up 0.62% Monday while US markets were closed for the July 4th long weekend. On Friday US markets rallied sharply while Canadian markets remained closed.

As you you'll recall from last night's article, I expected the markets to gap up by approximately the same percentage basis as the US markets rallied Friday. This was not the case as the TSX closed up only by about 1/3 the latest SPY close. In fact, earlier in the morning the TSX was actually trading negative.

Float up, fade down.

This kind of showing is interesting. The fact that the TSX under performed the S&P 500 by a good margin shows that perhaps some of the exuberance of Friday's rally has faded. It also confirms my suspicion that the TSX might lag as it had not yet hit major resistance just above Thursday's close.

If the TSX does continue to push higher it will hit strong resistance at the 860 pivot low and ascending trend-line. If Tuesday's market pulls back, the 50MA at 850.95 will remain a barrier.

With Canada's exchanges re-opened, what remains to be seen is how the US market trades post holiday weekend. The SPY is arguably in a more precarious position as there is no real support until all the way back at 132, the breakout level from Friday afternoon's initial spike. On the other hand if US markets continue up, there's no real resistance until just above 134 and then all the way back to the double top at around 137.

The futures will be re-opening for the week shortly and I'm eager to see how they perform. I'm still short the market and will be looking to get more short in the event of further upside. Personally, I think it's likely that Tuesday is an uneventful day with little price movement either up or down.

If any news is released overnight, I'll re-evaluate my position. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date with my latest thoughts.

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