The only thing that matters on the S&P 500

I apologize for not posting here in over a week. This blog is meant primarily as a place for me to share longer term swing trade idea, but this kind of volatile market has simply not been conducive to that. This kind of market is best traded on a scalping basis and with good deal of caution.

With that being said, I am watching the longer term forecast for the S&P 500 very closely. As I've posted several times before, I will maintain an upside bias until certain technical factors change. Right now, the one technical factor I'm watching is the bottom trend line on the SPY daily chart (in green below).

As far as I'm concerned, if this trend line holds, the market may continue to trade higher. If it breaks, stocks will almost certainly trade lower. Interestingly, the SPY hit this level almost exactly late on Friday and just barely held. Monday will be important test in determining if we bounce into the next several days or begin to trade down.

It's also important to note that we are trading within a macro bear wedge (sharp down move followed by a secondary move sharply higher), as I've mentioned previously. This means that it's only a matter of time before the market breaks, and a break of this green trend line could be a foretelling indicator of that happening.